Friday, March 16, 2007

Something to worry about...

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) -- Two ski resorts near Beijing have closed early this year because there wasn't enough snow, and the balmy weather has made it difficult for Mongolian families -- most of whom don't own freezers -- to store meat-filled buns and other traditional food.

Winter is under threat in many parts of Asia, and most scientists say global climate change is the cause.

"Winter is becoming shorter," said Benjamin L. Preston, a researcher at the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization who co-authored a report last year on the impact of climate change on the Asia-Pacific region.

"Things that you associate with winter such as snowfall and frost are on the decline," he continued. "We can attribute that to rising temperatures in the region and that has been linked to the global phenomenon of climate change."

In places like South Korea, for example, some rivers reportedly failed to consistently freeze, for the first time ever. The warmer weather in Japan is expected to bring its famed cherry blossoms into bloom some 10 days early this year.

Warmer winters in Asia are part of a larger trend that saw record-high temperatures worldwide in January, according to the U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's National Climate Data Center.

The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for the month was 0.85 degrees Celsius (1.53 Fahrenheit) warmer than the previous record set in 2002 which was itself 0.71 degrees Celsius (1.28 Fahrenheit) above the norm.

Much of that was due, the agency said, to global warming and the impact of El Nino, which is defined as an unusual warming of waters in the Pacific.

Japan this year had one of the warmest winters on record and downtown Tokyo went without snow for the first time in 130 years, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Temperatures from December 2006 until February 2007 matched the previous record high between December 1948 and February 1949 and Tokyo had no days that dipped below freezing this winter, the agency said.

The average temperature during winter months from December through February in Tokyo from 1971 and 2000 was 6.7 degrees Celsius (44.06 Fahrenheit), the agency said. From December 2006 to February 27, 2007, the average temperature was nearly a full 2 degrees Celsius higher, at 8.6 degrees Celsius (47.48 Fahrenheit), it said, which was the warmest on record.

It does not compile nationwide data.

"As the long and slow changes of global warming combine with changes in short-term cycles, there is a tendency toward warmer winters," Akira Yamamoto, assistant chief of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, said referring to El Nino and a cyclical atmospheric circulation pattern called Arctic Oscillation.

"The average temperature will continue to rise steadily so we can predict that there will be more warmer winters ahead," he said.

Similar trends have been seen in other parts of Asia, with the Beijing Daily newspaper reporting that January temperatures across China were 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 Fahrenheit) warmer than average.

Winters in South Korea, where temperatures this year were more than 2 degrees Celsius above average, have shrunk by 10 days on average nationwide, according to a study of meteorological data between 1973 and 2004 by Gwangyong Choi of Rutgers University in New Jersey, Won-tae Kwon of the National Meteorological Administration of Korea and David A. Robinson published last year.

The warming trend, researchers said, was more dramatic in South Korea's big cities, where the effects of urbanization including increased numbers of concrete buildings helped further shorten the winter season.

Australia, New Zealand and Afghanistan have also seen warmer winters in recent years.

The trends have been blamed in part for a 20 percent reduction in glacial ice masses in New Zealand and the disappearance of some 20 glacier lakes in the northwest China regions of Qinghai and Xinjiang which are receiving less runoff water from the shrinking masses of ice.

The effects of these trends are starting to become obvious.

Officials with the ski resorts in Xueshijie and Jundushan in China told The Associated Press they had closed about a week early because of higher temperatures this year. Snowfall across Japan has also been lighter than usual.

The Japanese resort area of Niseko on the northern island of Hokkaido, for example, saw its snow base decline from 3 meters (9.8 feet) to 2 meters (6.6 feet) in February.

"Visitors will be disappointed if they come this year and see no snow. I'm worried about business next year if it's the same snow as this," said Kitami Itoh, a manager at the 506-room Prince Hotel in Niseko.

But what has been a setback for skiers has been a boon for flower lovers especially in China, Japan and South Korea.

Yulan Magnolia trees on Chang'an Avenue in downtown Beijing -- which normally blossom in late March -- were already in bud in February. In China's Nanjing, the capital of east China's Jiangsu Province, sweet-scented osmanthus also blossomed early.

While these changes are jarring to some, Preston and other experts said people would be unwise to toss out their winter boots and parkas anytime soon -- though he said warming winters are likely to be the norm in the future.

"Probably, what you will see over the long term are more of these years when the ski areas in Australia or Asia have bad years when snows don't come," he said. "You would expect to see these types of events with increased frequency in the years to come."

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